Strategic Risk Mitigation
Get a vision of the future from the front lines
Want to increase the odds of success? Find out what your employees really think will happen.
Individual biases cloud ROI decisions
There are high levels of uncertainty about which investments will have the highest ROI. As individuals, we are all subject to biases that lead to poor decisions, and so we need to structure major decisions so as to minimize this risk.
Fear disruption is already underway
Disruption is by definition hard to predict. It is easier to experience once it is happening. However, not listening to signals from those who experience it first means less time to react and respond.
What’s the Solution?
No one knows your business better than your employees. It is an open secret among consultants that their best source of insight about your business is what your employees say during informal conversations around the water cooler, or after work.
So instead of hiring outside consultants to give you strategic advice, why don’t you offer a platform that makes it easy for you to listen to your employees.
This will reduce the individual biases in your decision-making. Research has proven that crowds are consistently better than individuals at forecasting what is actually going to happen.
What’s more, as new information comes in, new forecasts get updated in real time. This means you’ll never say “if only someone had told me” ever again.
Employees love using these tools. Participation rates are in the 70% to 80% range, compared to 30% for annual engagement surveys.
Practical Ways to Get Started:
Think of collective forecasting like a sports pool, where you have to pick which teams will win. There is a great deal of uncertainty, and each one of us has many biases that cloud our judgment. But if we can aggregate everyone’s individual forecasts, as a whole, our track record of picking winners is much, much better.
In your company, you can start by making some predictions about what is going to happen this year with the business. Keep track of who was correct, and who was not. By measuring their accuracy everyone will have an incentive to give their most honest answer about what they think is going to happen.
If you think this is a useful way to think about a problem, imagine what could happen with an anonymous platform, where forecasts were always being updated in real time, and everyone got feedback on their own accuracy.