Prediction Markets are essentially “Futures Markets” where the outcome becomes more predictable over time. CrowdBridge bases their predictions on current trending events such as politics, health, and sports. They then release the questions to the public to have them make “forecasts” about how likely an event will or will not happen. Therefore, prediction markets make the verifiable future event exchangeable. In other words, masses of people place bets on the probability of particular results for certain events and situations.
The payoff depends on how accurate the overall prediction of the outcome of an event turns out to be. This means that people will put in more effort to come to the most accurate conclusion. They are the accumulation of human wisdom on the probability of a future event and the results can be influenced. They hold important elements such as collaboration, communication, knowledge and skill.
Prediction markets are useful because the outcome relies on a collective view and not just one person’s research. The theory behind it all is that if you have a monetary stake in a future event then you will put in more effort into researching information to come to the most accurate conclusion. CrowdBridge is unique because it not only opens their questions to the online population, but also allows for people to submit their own questions. This further eliminates any chance for singularity or biases because it is not just one person coming up with the questions and deciding what is important. What we at CrowdBridge are asking is not what you “want” to happen (I want all the boil water advisories to end) but what you genuinely “think” will happen .
If you have a question about a future event that you feel could benefit a prediction market, head over to CrowdBridge and send one in for review!
Written by: Leah Cross
